Indonesia, 2024 elections: Why they can shift the balance in Asia

Foreign direct investment in the mining and base metals industries has reached 16 billion dollars in 2022, mostly from Chinese companies that dominate Indonesia’s nickel industry, while total foreign direct investment reached $45.6 billion, a record. China’s leading electric car manufacturer only started at the beginning of February Byd announced an investment of $1.3 billion to build an electric vehicle factory in Indonesia with a capacity of $1.5 billion 150,000 vehicles. However, in recent months the flow of investment has slowed while waiting for guidance on the new government’s policies.

Prabowo guarantees that he will continue the policies of his former rival. This also applies to Ganjar and Anies, especially when it comes to nickel and frankness international investments. The United States is also trying to make up for lost ground and is seeking a strategic agreement on nickel, which is being held back despite geopolitical differences Visit to the Widodo White House last November.

The international chessboard

The vote is also being followed with great attention China And United States. With its non-aligned foreign policy, Indonesia is always an excellent barometer for understanding the balance of Southeast Asia. A context in which China’s relations with the Philippines are increasingly tense, just as those who have problems also cause problems Vietnam. However, in Jakarta the climate seems idyllic, especially in the commercial sector. There was one during Widodo’s two terms in office Increase of more than eightfold of Chinese foreign investments.

On October 2nd last year, exactly ten years after the introduction of the New maritime Silk Road With a speech by Xi Jinping from Jakarta, Widodo took part in the launch of the new Jakarta-Bandung railway line. It is one of the flagship infrastructure projects of the New Silk Road. That means it was built largely with Chinese funds. The high-speed train connects the capital Jakarta with the important industrial and tourist center of Bandung. Maximum speed of 350 kilometers per hour for a 142 kilometer route. New shopping areas are being created along the way. An expansion could also take place in the future.

Many believe that a Prabowo victory would bring Indonesia even closer to China. The other presidential candidates reported higher values mistrust The country’s dependence on China is becoming clear, but analysts say foreign policy is unlikely to change regardless of who wins. In addition, with Prabowo the distance to the West on some key issues could increase. On the Middle East, Indonesia’s position is already clearly against it Israelwith which the country does not even have official diplomatic relations.

However, Widodo avoided being perceived as close to him Russia by Vladimir Putin after War in Ukraine. However, Prabowo expressed some doubts last June when he proposed a Korean-style peace at the Shangri-La Defense Forum in Singapore: an immediate ceasefire, a 15-kilometer demilitarized zone on both sides and the deployment of security forces Peacekeeping of the United Nations. And finally, the most controversial point that angers Kiev and the West the most: a referendum in the areas it defines as “disputed” to determine which side they must take.

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